Global potash capacity has been on the rise rapidly. It is estimated that the K2O capacity will increase from 45.4 million tons in 2012 to 59.6 million tons in 2017. The newly added capacity will mainly come from the expansion of the current brown fields, of which 12 million tons will come from Canada, Russia, Belarus, the US and China. PotashCorp and Mosaic will contribute 27% and 11% of the increase respectively. Uralkali and Eurochem will contribute 17% and 10% respectively. China will contribute 13%. The remainder of 4 million will come from the new projects in Canada, Russia, Brazil and Laos.

In the future, the strategy of the buying consortium “dominated by the government, coordinated by the CCCMC, and jointly negotiating towards the external”should be adhered to, so as to maintain the low price level of China’s potash market. Since the beginning of this year, potash price has been falling continuously, which has prompted the necessity of setting up the national strategic reserves of potash, in order to regulate the market fundamentals and to provide for the sound development of the market. We should stick to the 3-1/3 strategy, which is the domestic supply will be composed of 3 1/3s, i.e. domestic production from domestic resource, imported potash and production from overseas resources will take up 1/3 of the supply respectively. This is aimed at reasonably developing domestic potash resource, pushing forward the sustainable development of the potash industry and guaranteeing the food security of the country.